Efectos de desbordamiento interregional en España: Una estimación a través del modelo input-output interregional

En esta nota se presenta un modelo input-output interregional de la economía española referido al año 1995, que ha sido estimado a partir de una amplia colección de tablas input-output uni-regionales y de matrices de comercio interregionales estimadas a partir de flujos de transporte de mercancías. A partir de este modelo, y mediante la aplicación del método de extracción hipotética, se cuantifica la capacidad de arrastre de cada comunidad autónoma sobre el resto de la economía española a través de las vinculaciones sectoriales de la demanda intermedia

El Comercio inter-regional en el contexto de un modelo input-output multiregional para España

In this paper we introduce the first version of a interregional input-output model for the Spanish Economy, built by a group of researchers from the L.R. Klein Institute using the following information: • A complete set of 17th regional input-output tables built (or updated) for 1995 (one for each of the 17th Spanish regions-NUT2). All of them coherent with the National input-output Table. • A set of interregional trade matrices, estimated for each kind of product. Apart from a brief description of the main underpinnings of the model and the process of estimation, we focus on the strategy used for the estimation of this set of interregional trade matrices, using transport flows and value/weight relations indirectly deduced from detailed international trade statistics. Finally, by means of coefficients, maps and gravitational models, we analyse the most important intra and interregional flows in the light of the expected relations among flow intensity, geographical distance and sectoral specialisation.construido por un equipo de investigadores del Instituto L.R. Klein a partir de dos piezas de información: • Una colección completa de 17 tablas input-output uni-regionales construidas (o actualizadas) para 1995 (una para cada Comunidad Autónoma) y armonizadas con los datos de la Contabilidad Regional y la Tabla Input-Output de España para 1995 del INE. • Una colección de matrices interregionales de comercio estimadas para cada tipo de producto. A parte de una breve descripción de los fundamentos del modelo y el proceso de estimación, el artículo se concentra en la metodología utilizada para la estimación de las matrices de comercio interregional, mediante el uso de flujos de transporte y relaciones valor/peso deducidas de las estadísticas de comercio internacional. Finalmente, mediante coeficientes, mapas y modelos gravitatorios se analizan los principales flujos intra e interregionales tratando de medir la importancia de la proximidad geográfica y especialización sectorial en las relaciones comerciales

Localización residencial y movilidad laboral: un análisis del commuting de trabajadores nacionales e inmigrantes en la Comunidad de Madrid (1996-04)

Por commuting se entiende los desplazamientos de los habitantes de un área metropolitana desde su lugar de residencia hasta el de trabajo u ocio. La intensidad, dirección y estabilidad de los desplazamientos laborales aportan una valiosa información acerca de las fuerzas que impulsan el crecimiento de una ciudad, de la forma en la que las empresas y los hogares resuelven sus decisiones de localización, o de la predisposición de los individuos a migrar o soportar largos trayectos hasta el lugar de trabajo u ocio. En muchos modelos teóricos de economía urbana, la distancia y el tiempo de commuting son factores clave para determinar la localización óptima de las empresas y los hogares. También abundan los trabajos empíricos que analizan la intensidad y dirección de los flujos de commuting en función de factores tales como el tamaño de los hogares, su renta, raza o nacionalidad. Desgraciadamente la disponibilidad de este tipo de trabajos en España es relativamente escasa. En este trabajo, mediante el cálculo de la redundancia relativa, y la aplicación de técnicas de análisis matricial y multivariante se cuantifica la tendencia hacia la dispersión de la población, el empleo y los flujos de commuting de nacionales e inmigrantes en la Comunidad de Madrid durante el periodo 1996-2004, a la vez que se contrasta la estabilidad diferencial de los patrones de movilidad de ambos colectivos en las cuatro principales ramas productivas

Rethinking regional competitiveness: Catalonia's international and interregional trade, 1995-2006

Studies of competitiveness tend to focus on a local economy's global interactions, particularly its international trade. But for countries that are at least mid-sized (such as Spain), interregional trade tends to be as large as or significantly larger than international trade. The case of Catalonia illustrates the importance of interregional flows in truly analyzing and devising strategies for a region's external competitiveness. Accounting for interregional trade changes and performing analyses of Catalonia's overall merchandise trade balance, which sectors generate external surpluses as opposed to deficits, and who Catalonia's key trading partners are, and the use of a gravity-model approach to estimate external border effects at the regional level for Catalonia and the rest of Spain, reveal significant variations by sector and by trading partner, generally higher external border effects for exports than imports, and declines in border effects over time - but with a discernible flattening in recent years.Border Effect; Gravity Model; Interregional trade; transport flows;

Bayesian Methods for Completing Data in Space-Time Panel Models

Completing data sets that are collected in heterogeneous units is a quite frequent problem. Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a unified framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series (the `indicators'). This paper develops a spatial Chow-Lin procedure for cross-sectional and panel data and compares the classical and Bayesian estimation methods. We outline the error covariance structure in a spatial context and derive the BLUE for the ML and Bayesian MCMC estimation. Finally, we apply the procedure to Spanish regional GDP data between 2000-2004. We assume that only NUTS-2 GDP is known and predict GDP at NUTS-3 level by using socio-economic and spatial information available at NUTS-3. The spatial neighborhood is defined by either km distance, travel time, contiguity and trade relationships. After running some sensitivity analysis, we present the forecast accuracy criteria comparing the predicted values with the observed ones.Interpolation, Spatial panel econometrics, MCMC, Spatial

Is the Border Effect an Artefact of Geographic Aggregation?

The existence of a large border effect is considered as one of the main puzzles of international macroeconomics. We show that the border effect is, to a large extent, an artefact of geographic concentration. In order to do so we combine international flows with intranational flows data characterised by a high geographic grid. At this fine grid, intranational flows are highly localised and dropping sharply with distance. The use of a small geographical unit of reference to measure intra-national bilateral trade flows allows to estimating correctly the negative impact of distance on shipments. When we use sector disaggregated export flows of 50 Spanish provinces in years 2000 and 2005 split into interprovincial and inter-national flows, we find that the border effect is reduced substantially and even becomes statistically not different from zero in some estimations.border effect, distance, interregional trade, international trade, Spanish provinces

Bayesian Methods for Completing Data in Space-time Panel Models

Completing data sets that are collected in heterogeneous units is a quite frequent problem. Chow and Lin (1971) were the first to develop a united framework for the three problems (interpolation, extrapolation and distribution) of predicting times series by related series (the 'indicators'). This paper develops a spatial Chow-Lin procedure for cross-sectional and panel data and compares the classical and Bayesian estimation methods. We outline the error covariance structure in a spatial context and derive the BLUE for the ML and Bayesian MCMC estimation. Finally, we apply the procedure to Spanish regional GDP data between 2000-2004. We assume that only NUTS-2 GDP is known and predict GDPat NUTS-3 level by using socio-economic and spatial information available at NUTS-3. The spatial neighborhood is defined by either km distance, travel-time, contiguity and trade relationships. After running some sensitivity analysis, we present the forecast accuracy criteria comparing the predicted with the observed values.Interpolation, Spatial panel econometrics, MCMC, Spatial Chow-Lin, Missing regional data, Spanish provinces, 'Polycentric-periphery' relationship

Chow-Lin Methods in Spatial Mixed Models

Missing data in dynamic panel models occur quite often since detailed recording of the dependent variable is often not possible at all observation points in time and space. In this paper we develop classical and Bayesian methods to complete missing data in panel models. The Chow-Lin (1971) method is a classical method for completing dependent disaggregated data and is successfully applied in economics to disaggregate aggregated time series. We will extend the space-time panel model in a new way to include cross-sectional and spatially correlated data. The missing disaggregated data will be obtained either by point prediction or by a numerical (posterior) predictive density. Furthermore, we point out that the approach can be extended to more complex models, like ow data or systems of panel data. The panel Chow-Lin approach will be demonstrated with examples involving regional growth for Spanish regions.Space-time interpolation, Spatial panel econometrics, MCMC, Spatial Chow-Lin, missing regional data, Spanish provinces, MCMC, NUTS: nomenclature of territorial units for statistics